![[Please read the previous link to en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_energy_consumption_per_capita to consume the same information textually]](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f4/Energy-consumption-per-capita-2003.png/1200px-Energy-consumption-per-capita-2003.png)
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has a free online publication 2013 Key World Energy Statistics
from which I will take a few figures below. I will attribute them as [IEA-Key2013].
This figure from p6 of [IEA-Key2013] shows total primary energy supply for the world, listed by fuel type. In order of dominance, the fuels are: oil, coal/peat, natural gas, biofuels/waste, nuclear, hydro, other. (Note on energy unit conversions: 1 toe (tonne of oil equivalent) = 11.63 MWh (megawatt-hours) = 41.87 GJ (gigajoules).)
![[IEA's graphs of world primary energy supply by fuel. eg for 2011 oil 31.5%, coal/peat 28.8%, natural gas 21.3%, biofuels/waste: 10.0%, nuclear 5.1%, hydro 2.3%, other 1.0% for a total of 13113Mtoe ]](images/IEA-worldprimaryenergysupplybyfuel.png)
Different regions/countries of the world consume vastly different amounts of power per capita. Rich countries use up to ~22.5kW of energy per capita on average (all year), which is about nine times the world average of ~2.5kW/person. Canadians use about 9.8kW/person. The following figure from Wikipedia shows the inequities quite clearly:-
The following graph from [IEA-Key2013] shows nuclear production around the world by region. Notice how strongly dominated it is by OECD countries like USA, France, Russia, etc.
![[nuclear production by region - almost totally dominated by OECD countries]](images/IEA-nuclearproductionbyregion.png)
The following chart provides a graphical representation of energy flows in tabular form in this report from Stats Can on energy flows in the Canadian economy in 2012 (the most recent available). Click on the image to get a higher resolution version (the Stats Can image had limited resolution; this was the best I could do).
![[Readers with low vision: all I can do is refer you to the previous link to the PDF version of the report containing tables which are graphically represented in this rather poor-resolution graphic. Stats Can does not provide a HTML version.]](images/2012CanadianEnergyFlows-Arrows.png)
Estimates of proven reserves of fossil fuel energy vary wildly, mostly owing to differing optimism about finding new oil/gas fields and coal seams. For definiteness we will use figures from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (2011-2013 estimates) as follows:-
| Coal | Crude oil | Natural gas | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Proven reserves: | 980 billion short tons | 1650 billion barrels | 6850 trillion cubic feet |
| Current consumption: | 8.45 billion short tons/year | 32.6 billion barrels/year | 120 trillion cubic feet/year |
| Time left*: | ~116 years | ~50 years | ~57 years |
* assumptions: no new discoveries, constant burn rate, and linear draw-down (all of which can be relaxed in more sophisticated forecasting).
It should be clear to anyone with a brain that we need to urgently start weaning ourselves off fossil fuels. We will need some of the more concentrated forms of energy to help develop more diffuse forms of renewable energy, so we cannot just continue on autopilot for the next ~50 years. As we will see shortly, coal is the least environmentally palatable electricity production source in terms of deaths (e.g. from mining and pollution), so it would make a really bad substitute for nuclear. Ontario made the right call phasing out coal before nuclear.
What kinds of energy sources are renewable?
How dangerous is producing electricity from renewables as compared to fossil fuels? Not very, as the following table taken from nextbigfuture.com/2008/03/deaths-per-twh-for-all-energy-sources.html shows:-
| Energy Source | Death Rate per TWh | Comments |
|---|---|---|
| Coal – world average | 161 | (26% of world energy, 50% of electricity) |
| Coal – China | 278 | |
| Coal – USA | 15 | |
| Oil | 36 | (36% of world energy) |
| Natural Gas | 4 | (21% of world energy) |
| Biofuel/Biomass | 12 | |
| Peat | 12 | |
| Solar (rooftop) | 0.44 | (less than 0.1% of world energy) |
| Wind | 0.15 | (less than 1% of world energy) |
| Hydro | 0.10 | (Europe death rate, 2.2% of world energy) |
| Hydro - world (including Banqiao) | 1.4 | (about 2500 TWh/yr and 171,000 Banqiao dead) |
| Nuclear | 0.04 | (5.9% of world energy) |
Can humanity live on renewables alone? Yes we can! This analysis from real climate scientists indicates that this is indeed technically possible. For an alternative calculation, you can inspect a chart toting up the possible sources of renewable energy in the UK in p103 of [MacKay], where he shows that it is just about possible given current technology. On p.109 [MacKay] shows that once you take into account public opposition to various kinds of renewable energy solutions, the balance sheet looks much sorrier with renewables only covering about one tenth of current consumption (yes, I want the power station but not in MY back yard!
). Both strong societal change and strong political leadership will be required to turn this situation around. But there are lots of reasons to be really optimistic about the future of green (renewable, ecologically sustainable) energy. For instance, as [MacKay] shows on p.181 and p.236 of his textbook, you would not need very much of Earth's land area to power all of humanity's energy needs using solar power.
One of the biggest energy guzzlers for any first-world country is transportation. You can look at the energy efficiency of moving people around by different modes of transport on p.128 of [MacKay]. Some of the least efficient are (in order): jetskis, Learjets, helicopters, ocean liners, Range Rovers, cars, and hovercraft. Interestingly enough, per person-km, even a (full) Boeing 747 is more energy efficient than a passenger car! The bicycle is still at the top of the tree with the best energy efficiency of all. Another place people can save energy is by thermally insulating their houses. [MacKay] shows on p.142 that installing insulation and double glazing windows combined can save you about half your power bill for a variety of types of housing. Make a start in thinking about your own energy budget by studying how much energy your gadgets suck, as explained on p.70 of [MacKay].
You can read lots of predictions about what disastrous things might happen in Earth's future if we continue with unabated capitalism which assumes infinite sources of energy and raw materials and infinite sinks in which to throw humanity's trash. What is clear from the geophysics is that people in the poorest countries closer to the equator (eg Bangladesh) will suffer the biggest rises in sea level -- with many Pacific islands at risk of going underwater entirely. This makes me furious because I am a Pacific Islander. Many of the future scenarios you will have seen already are alarmist and look apocalyptic, because they are often designed to grab your attention and to snap you into making some life changes. Unfortunately, a lot of what you can find online is poorly researched rubbish. I suggest that to get a handle on the real science of climate change you try out NASA-JPL's Climate Time Machine, where you can track sea ice, sea level, carbon emissions, and average global temperature from 1890 until the present day. It will help give you an idea of what our future holds.
The reason why Earth is facing major climatic change is that slavish devotion of governing ideologues to colonialist capitalism is wrecking the planet. As every honest astrophysicist on Earth knows, there is no Planet B for humanity. We have to learn how to live non-destructively on this planet. Part of the change needed in the next years and decades is changing from the above sick economic system to something based more strongly in ecological sustainability and social justice. As part of this, there needs to be fundamental change in the relationships between settler governments and indigenous nations worldwide.
One way of organizing thinking about economic indicators more broadly-based than neoclassical economics is Max-Neef's fundamental human needs. The following table is taken from Wikipedia:-
| Need | Being (qualities) | Having (things) | Doing (actions) | Interacting (settings) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| subsistence | physical and mental health | food, shelter, work | feed, clothe, rest, work | living environment, social setting |
| protection | care, adaptability, autonomy | social security, health systems, work | co-operate, plan, take care of, help | social environment, dwelling |
| affection | respect, sense of humour, generosity, sensuality | friendships, family, relationships with nature | share, take care of, make love, express emotions | privacy, intimate spaces of togetherness |
| understanding | critical capacity, curiosity, intuition | literature, teachers, policies, educational | analyse, study, meditate, investigate, | schools, families, universities, communities, |
| participation | receptiveness, dedication, sense of humour | responsibilities, duties, work, rights | cooperate, dissent, express opinions | associations, parties, churches, neighbourhoods |
| leisure | imagination, tranquility, spontaneity | games, parties, peace of mind | day-dream, remember, relax, have fun | landscapes, intimate spaces, places to be alone |
| creation | imagination, boldness, inventiveness, curiosity | abilities, skills, work, techniques | invent, build, design, work, compose, interpret | spaces for expression, workshops, audiences |
| identity | sense of belonging, self-esteem, consistency | language, religions, work, customs, values, norms | get to know oneself, grow, commit oneself | places one belongs to, everyday settings |
| freedom | autonomy, passion, self-esteem, open-mindedness | equal rights | dissent, choose, run risks, develop awareness | anywhere |
I will finish my remarks with a favourite quotation which I hope will inspire you:-
Whenever I see an adult on a bicycle, I no longer despair for the future of the human race.
-– Herbert George Wells
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